I have asked my good friend Steve Smith to share some of his research on Global Warming. I have great respect for him as a thinker, I also love his unique perspectives. This is the 3rd (to see part one, part two)in a series of three posts, look for the next installment soon.
Stephen Smith has a B.A. in Math from San Jose State University. During the day he is a Computer Systems Quality Engineer and programmer, so he understands well the ability of programmers to manipulate outcomes in computer models. In his spare time he researches and writes about issues related to maximizing individual and collective freedom, specializing in detecting manipulation, propaganda, and social engineering at various levels from interpersonal to international. Other areas of interest include history, music, linguistics, physics, “complex” systems, and chaos theory.
Part 3of 3 — Troubling Assumptions and Blatant Hypocrisy
The most troubling aspect of this particular subject is that many on both sides buy into government intervention to save us from ourselves. Even Skeptics who doubt any significant warming can be affected by humanity also believe that if humanity was significantly affecting temperatures then government action is necessary and moral. The problem I have with this assumption is that it hasn’t been thoroughly examined and dissected. While it is perfectly legitimate for someone to advocate change, It makes no sense that people who spit on the sidewalk should legislate against spitting on the sidewalk until they themselves have stopped. How odd for scientists to derive their ethics from non-scientific assumption.
Al Gore is like that charismatic preacher of dogma from the Southern United States, Jimmy Swaggart. Why do people believe these hypocrites? Is it because they have a serious demeanor, a southern accent, and an apocalyptic message? It amazes me as someone from the southern United States, that these two preachers continue to have any following at all, given their hypocrisy. But there is one significant difference between the two: Swaggart wasn’t trying to create a sex tax when he was found to be a hypocrite, but Al Gore is trying to tax us over CO2 when he has one of the largest carbon foot prints in the world and will hardly be impacted economically. Al Gore isn’t the only hypocritical Kleptic and Jimmy Swaggart is not the only hypocritical Christian. That does not excuse their hypocrisy.
The preceding paragraphs bring up two points I would like to emphasize:
1) In order for someone to have the right to penalize me for a behavior that I have, they themselves must be significantly better than I am with regard to that behavior. Since those trying to charge us higher fees and taxes for living average lives are some of the worst CO2 offenders, they lack moral grounds for limiting our own paltry CO2 emissions and for preventing cheap development in the third world.
2) Even if our accusers were truly more “righteous” than the rest of us when it comes to CO2 emissions, in the U.S., we are innocent until proven guilty. In order for there to be “due process”, we the accused are entitled to counsel, all of the data of the prosecution, and our own expert witnesses. These have been denied by the Kleptics, and only the “illegal” release of emails illustrating illegal and unethical behavior has made us aware of the extent of the problem.
Since it is highly unlikely that anyone is in immediate danger of developing AGW induced cancer, I think it is safe to take a personal, individual approach rather than a societal one driven by the force of law. If you believe in AGW/ACC, show the rest of us by your life style that you are living what you believe. Make significant changes to your life-style so that we can see your commitment. Go without many of the pleasures of life that you think everyone should do without. Honest Christians deny themselves many things regardless of what society does. So do many environmentalists. Show me, don’t tell me. How can anyone who does what I do, and what everyone in the community does, charge me a fine for some an offense everyone is guilty of, especially since the U.S. Constitution states that I cannot be deprived of life, liberty, or property without due process.
For these and other reasons I have chosen to join with the Skeptics until new significant data supporting AGW/ACC turns up. Perhaps this is a decision not entirely free of dogmatism on my part, but mostly it is because I have run out of time. After trying approach #3 and #4, I’ll have to revert to approach #1 and make my best guess based on the data I’ve collected so far. Based on the sticky notes on my wall and other data collected and organized from the reading I have done on many different subjects and from many different sources, some historical, some scientific, I believe that if I joined the Kleptics in demanding that the government act on the preliminary and tentative data presented in support of AGW/ACC I would have to overlook many more inconsistencies and accept many more unproven assumptions than I will have to as a Skeptic. The Skeptics aren’t without their faults. Many are dogmatic. But scientists can never use the dogmatism of dogmatists to justify their own dogmatic behaviors, because dogmatism is the opposite of science, not religion. The CO2 GHG model is about as advanced in relation to the complexities of climate change as Spontaneous Generation was to understanding why organic matter turns rotten, and is likely as useless in preventing it.
Scientists should know better than to set about their work with the goal of proving their assumptions correct. Science is about falsifying theories not falsifying data or guaranteeing outcomes. Those who demand my assent by way of their “authority” as scientists should have paid more attention in logic class in college. Appeal to authority is a logical fallacy. Without logic, science remains primitive. The only authority I answer to is Truth. I won’t reject innocently written histories or innocently discovered facts just to meet the demands of dogmatists out to prove pre-conceived notions and politically motivated ideologies. I’ve noticed that the Kleptics regularly use a divide and conquer strategy to deflect valid but small objections. After I put the multi-color sticky notes on wall, it became clear to me that there are dozens of legitimate but small objections to the data and models supporting AGW/ACC, to go along with many medium sized and large objections. There are simply too many to ignore.
For those readers who have sided with the Kleptics, please understand that I really don’t care if you believe in AGW/ACC or choose to live your life in a way so as to minimize your carbon foot print. I appreciate the example you are giving to the rest of us. But chances are there are many who don’t believe in AGW/ACC who have a smaller carbon foot print than you. Given than fact, don’t expect us who already conserve better than you do to put up with the nonsense of you trying to force us to live a life style you yourself are unwilling to live. By the way, those who claim we are in immediate danger would do well to recognize that the infamous Love Canal public endangerment from pollution turned out to be way over hyped, even false as reported by a tracking study done by the state of New York: “Overall, the number of cancers in residents was slightly less than in other New Yorkers.”
No matter what position you take, the scientific measurements will not always cooperate with your hypothesis. Dr. Roy Spencer has shown that the rise in temperatures shown in many graphs of global temperatures is largely related to population. But he also recently reported that January and February of this year are the warmest January and February with regard to satellite measurements of lower atmospheric temperatures since 1979 when the satellites were brought on line (http://www.drroyspencer.com). It is what it is. Earth’s climate is complex. It’s not going to always do what we want it to. Climage change is constant. Trying to calculate climate change based on generalized circulation models is like trying to calculate the volume of a box when the only measurement you have is the length of the shortest side of the box.
Learn how real scientists reconcile differences in the case of the missing neutrinos. It took 35 years to resolve this relatively simple problem. Climate is 100 times more complex. Perhaps we should expect the climate debate to take 3500 years to resolve scientifically.
Between 1250 and 1290, less than 800 years ago, the island town of (Old) Winchelsea, England was destroyed by incursions of the sea and floods. This time period was at the beginning of the slow transition from the Medieval Warm Period and the Medieval Cold Period (the mini ice age). The oceans had been warming for centuries without the help of CO2. What we can gain from this story is if Earth does in fact enter a cold period in the next few decades, we can expect increased storminess as warm oceans and cold air masses over continents collide.
Some Kleptics claim that Skeptics are merely religious fundamentalists who also deny the science of Darwinism. Ian Plimer, currently Professor of Mining Geology at the University of Adelaide, is a Darwinist who has debated creationists. He finds the Kleptics to be so dogmatic that he thinks that AGW/ACC is a new urban religion that arose among people who are separated from the natural world. (April 2009). Note that there are 5 parts to this video called “Human Induced Climate Change”, labeled 1 of 5, 2 of 5, 3 of 5, 4 of 5, and 5 of 5. There is another video titled “Environmentalism Is The New Religion” which may offend some traditional religionists as well. Personally I find it entertaining to hear him describe the dogmatism of the environmentalists as a religion … a new state religion.
Lord Monckton takes the Kleptics to task in Berlin, November 2009
When did Lord Monckton become suspicious of IPCC?
Enviromentalist Lucy Skywalker bought into Al Gore’s global warming movie, but later did an about face. This web page offers an excellent overview.
Here are some interesting videos collected by environmentalist Lucy Skywalker (mentioned earlier as one who started as a Kleptic and ended as a Skeptic):
Especially this one about how CO2 converts readily to calcium carbonate.
Perhaps one of the least dogmatic, least emotional debates on the subject can be found on the Rice University web site: Where is the physical science?” with Dr. Richard S. Lindzen (Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, MIT and member of the National Academy of Sciences) and Dr. Gerald North (Distinguished Professor in the Departments of Atmospheric Sciences and Oceanography at Texas A&M). Storms come from variability, so warming should bring fewer storms. Skeptic talks about processes and warmer talks about models.
What about the IPCC? Geologist Lawrence Solomon takes AGW to task, stating among other things that Abdussamatov who is collecting data via the international space station says that Mars is warming as well, and has been predicting a new Little Ice Age for some time, and his predictions are looking better with each passing year.
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/commentaries/solomon_settled.pdf — Lawrence Solomon, 25 February2010
Earth is warming is Mars, Pluto, Jupiter, and Neptune because of the sun
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/05/080512120523.htm — 12 May 2008
Diverting aid from saving lives today to preventing future climate change is wrong. — Thomas Fuller, Environment Policy, Denver Examiner, February 3, 2010
Peter Taylor is another environmentalist (Science Policy Analyst) with concerns about the focus on CO2 and Global Warming. Initially didn’t doubt Global Warming theory. Realized solutions for Global Warming would be more damaging than the warming itself. There is NOT a scientific consensus! Doesn’t deny warming, but realizes electromagnetic energy from sun went up dramatically in the last century. Biofuels plus global cooling will drive up food prices because of speculating.
I have nearly 200 other Internet links on AGW/ACC and more are found every time I do any online reading of the subject for those who are interested.